Online Poker Watchdog has just published the results of a new series of ‘bad beat’ tests. These tests focus on flop all-ins and will detect a bias in the deal towards the ‘underdog’ in all-in confrontations. They will also detect a bias towards the players that calls the all-in bet.
See the full details of the tests including explanation, method, results and conclusions at ‘Is Online Poker Rigged?’
Large Sample Size
Many tests that are run independently by poker players fall down because they only have a small sample of hands and so the results become meaningless. This isn’t the case with these tests as over 6 million hands have been analysed – more than 1 million hands for each site tested.
Wide Scope of Tests
Major independent sites have been tested: PokerStars, Party Poker and Bodog Poker.
Large networks have also been monitored: Ongame Network, Entraction Network and Merge Network were analysed. Between them, these three networks have over 150 member sites that share the network.
Altogether, these sites/networks comprise 85% of all online poker traffic.
For all sites and networks the results show that there was no evidence of a bias in the deal – all the sites passed the test.
These tests are limited in that they only detect bias in the turn and river cards of flop all-ins. Although, similar tests have been performed for pre-flop all-ins, so a bigger picture is beginning to form.
Also, bear in mind that not every online poker site has been tested. Sites and networks that don’t have their hands ‘tracked’ by hand history providers cannot be monitored. These include sites that actively try to prevent data-mining, sites with ‘anonymous’ tables where a player’s screen name doesn’t show and small sites that hand history providers don’t track. In our opinion, players at these sites are at higher risk.
However, for the sites and networks that are ‘tracked’ it seems that the theory that the favorite hand sees the wrong end of more ‘bad beats’ than they should when the chips are all-in is untrue.